Estimates

Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-19.

Street snapshot

The 13 price targets span $120 to $203, with a mean of $162 and a median of $164 — a wide range in USD for a name where opinion clusters at hold.

Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Analyst counts shown explicitly; recommendation respondents: 15.

Street view Reading Analysts
Recommendation mix Buy 3, Outperform 1, Hold 9, Underperform 1, Sell 1 15
Consensus score 2.73 15
Target price mean 162.5; high 203.0; low 120.0 13

Forward table

Consensus keeps revenue close to flat — FY2026 of about $6,426m sits just under the FY2025 actual of $6,500m before building toward roughly $7,060m by FY2028 — yet normalized EPS climbs from the $13.17 FY2025 actual toward $17.48 in FY2028, so the Street models earnings growth well ahead of the top line. Gross margin holds near 68–70% and no dividend is modeled (DPS of 0).

Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Analyst count is the estimate count for each period and metric.

Period Metric Mean YoY Analysts Low / high
FY0E Revenue 6,426 -1.1% 14 6,385 / 6,474
FY0E EBITDA 1,574 -2.3% 12 1,539 / 1,620
FY0E EBIT 1,278 7.5% — / —
FY0E Net income (GAAP) 872.8 19.7% 9 862.7 / 890.8
FY0E Net income (normalized) 925.1 -4.5% — / —
FY0E EPS (GAAP) 12.89 33.6% 9 12.49 / 13.28
FY0E EPS (normalized) 13.68 3.9% 15 13.07 / 14.20
FY0E Free cash flow 1,193 2.1% — / —
FY0E Dividend per share 0.00 — / —
FY0E Gross margin 69.7% 2.0% — / —
FY0E Capital expenditure -101.3 -16.5% — / —
FY0E Net debt 1,170 -9.5% — / —
FY0E Cash from operations 1,284 -1.0% — / —
FY0E ROE 512.4% 301.7% — / —
FY+1E Revenue 6,706 4.4% 14 6,544 / 6,884
FY+1E EBITDA 1,640 4.2% 12 1,530 / 1,698
FY+1E EBIT 1,334 4.4% — / —
FY+1E Net income (GAAP) 913.2 4.6% 9 859.0 / 943.6
FY+1E Net income (normalized) 965.0 4.3% — / —
FY+1E EPS (GAAP) 14.33 11.1% 9 13.47 / 15.95
FY+1E EPS (normalized) 15.30 11.8% 15 13.78 / 17.01
FY+1E Free cash flow 1,203 0.8% — / —
FY+1E Dividend per share 0.00 — / —
FY+1E Gross margin 69.6% -0.1% — / —
FY+1E Capital expenditure -106.5 5.2% — / —
FY+1E Net debt 622.5 -46.8% — / —
FY+1E ROE 462.6% -9.7% — / —
FY+1E Cash from operations 1,305 1.7% — / —
FY+2E Revenue 7,060 5.3% 10 6,741 / 7,319
FY+2E EBITDA 1,737 5.9% 10 1,551 / 1,843
FY+2E EBIT 1,439 7.9% — / —
FY+2E Net income (GAAP) 980.9 7.4% 6 883.0 / 1,030
FY+2E Net income (normalized) 1,025 6.2% — / —
FY+2E EPS (GAAP) 16.32 14.0% 6 14.77 / 20.27
FY+2E EPS (normalized) 17.48 14.2% 10 15.68 / 21.43
FY+2E Free cash flow 1,406 16.9% — / —
FY+2E Dividend per share 0.00 — / —
FY+2E Gross margin 69.4% -0.3% — / —
FY+2E Capital expenditure -114.0 7.1% — / —
FY+2E Net debt 526.2 -15.5% — / —
FY+2E Cash from operations 1,375 5.3% — / —
FY+2E ROE 227.1% -50.9% — / —
Q2 FY2026 Revenue 1,649 -2.2% 13 1,614 / 1,675
Q2 FY2026 EBITDA 430.1 -2.9% 10 401.0 / 445.6
Q2 FY2026 EBIT 347.7 5.0% — / —
Q2 FY2026 Net income (GAAP) 240.6 -0.2% 9 222.0 / 254.5
Q2 FY2026 Net income (normalized) 252.7 -0.9% — / —
Q2 FY2026 EPS (GAAP) 3.53 13.5% 9 3.23 / 3.81
Q2 FY2026 EPS (normalized) 3.75 6.2% 14 3.35 / 3.97
Q2 FY2026 Free cash flow 263.9 -30.4% — / —
Q2 FY2026 Dividend per share 0.00 — / —
Q2 FY2026 Gross margin 69.7% 3.0% — / —
Q2 FY2026 Capital expenditure -24.57 -19.4% — / —
Q2 FY2026 Net debt 1,291 1210.9% — / —
Q2 FY2026 Cash from operations 293.2 -28.3% — / —
Q3 FY2026 Revenue 1,503 -1.4% 13 1,486 / 1,528
Q3 FY2026 EBITDA 323.6 -6.7% 10 304.0 / 349.2
Q3 FY2026 EBIT 253.3 4.2% — / —
Q3 FY2026 Net income (GAAP) 170.3 381.2% 9 149.3 / 194.0
Q3 FY2026 Net income (normalized) 185.6 -0.5% — / —
Q3 FY2026 EPS (GAAP) 2.54 441.3% 9 2.31 / 2.94
Q3 FY2026 EPS (normalized) 2.73 -1.2% 14 2.55 / 3.16
Q3 FY2026 Free cash flow 300.5 -4.3% — / —
Q3 FY2026 Dividend per share 0.00 — / —
Q3 FY2026 Gross margin 69.7% 2.9% — / —
Q3 FY2026 Capital expenditure -23.93 -20.4% — / —
Q3 FY2026 Net debt 939.3 53.5% — / —
Q3 FY2026 Cash from operations 337.4 -1.6% — / —
Q3 FY2026 ROE 246.3% 215.8% — / —
Q4 FY2026 Revenue 1,764 0.7% 13 1,742 / 1,784
Q4 FY2026 EBITDA 422.3 -3.1% 10 412.0 / 434.4
Q4 FY2026 EBIT 348.3 2.6% — / —
Q4 FY2026 Net income (GAAP) 240.4 -0.7% 9 225.0 / 250.9
Q4 FY2026 Net income (normalized) 257.0 0.1% — / —
Q4 FY2026 EPS (GAAP) 3.66 9.1% 9 3.46 / 4.08
Q4 FY2026 EPS (normalized) 3.93 -0.3% 14 3.69 / 4.32
Q4 FY2026 Free cash flow 274.4 -2.5% — / —
Q4 FY2026 Dividend per share 0.00 — / —
Q4 FY2026 Gross margin 68.1% 2.1% — / —
Q4 FY2026 Capital expenditure -25.57 -14.7% — / —
Q4 FY2026 Net debt 757.7 -33.4% — / —
Q4 FY2026 ROE 357.6% 137.4% — / —
Q4 FY2026 Cash from operations 262.8 -17.1% — / —
Q1 FY2027 Revenue 1,555 2.9% 11 1,505 / 1,594
Q1 FY2027 EBITDA 404.4 1.1% 9 382.2 / 433.8
Q1 FY2027 EBIT 327.0 14.2% — / —
Q1 FY2027 Net income (GAAP) 224.2 1.0% 7 201.6 / 243.1
Q1 FY2027 Net income (normalized) 235.5 15.9% — / —
Q1 FY2027 EPS (GAAP) 3.46 8.9% 7 2.95 / 4.12
Q1 FY2027 EPS (normalized) 3.75 12.8% 13 3.25 / 4.37
Q1 FY2027 Free cash flow 313.8 51.9% — / —
Q1 FY2027 Dividend per share 0.00 — / —
Q1 FY2027 Gross margin 71.1% 1.5% — / —
Q1 FY2027 Capital expenditure -24.30 -1.6% — / —
Q1 FY2027 Net debt 497.0 -60.5% — / —
Q1 FY2027 ROE 353.4% 201.4% — / —
Q1 FY2027 Cash from operations 246.2 26.3% — / —

Estimate momentum

Over the past 180 days the Street has cut its out-year revenue line materially — FY2027 from about $7,151m to $6,706m and FY2028 from roughly $7,938m to $7,060m — while normalized EPS held up far better, FY2027 nudging up from $14.88 to $15.30 and FY2028 easing only modestly from $18.72 to $17.48. The revenue markdown runs across both forward years rather than a single period.

Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Point-in-time consensus; analyst count is shown where supplied.

Period Metric Lookback Then Now Direction / magnitude Analysts
2027 Revenue 30d 6,726 6,706 down 0.3%
2027 Revenue 90d 6,851 6,706 down 2.1%
2027 Revenue 180d 7,151 6,706 down 6.2%
2028 Revenue 30d 7,107 7,060 down 0.7%
2028 Revenue 90d 7,247 7,060 down 2.6%
2028 Revenue 180d 7,938 7,060 down 11.1%
2028 EPS (normalized) 30d 17.57 17.48 down 0.5%
2028 EPS (normalized) 90d 16.94 17.48 up 3.2%
2028 EPS (normalized) 180d 18.72 17.48 down 6.6%
2027 EPS (normalized) 30d 15.31 15.30 down 0.0%
2027 EPS (normalized) 90d 14.72 15.30 up 3.9%
2027 EPS (normalized) 180d 14.88 15.30 up 2.9%

Beat / miss record

The record points to earnings beats struck below the revenue line rather than demand surprises.

Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 1 consecutive miss; EPS (normalized): 8 consecutive beats.

Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective; analyst count shown per observation.

Quarter Metric Consensus as of Actual Surprise Outcome Analysts
Q1 FY2026 Revenue 1,515 1,511 -0.3% Miss
Q1 FY2026 EPS (normalized) 2.92 3.32 13.6% Beat
Q4 FY2025 Revenue 1,749 1,753 0.2% Beat
Q4 FY2025 EPS (normalized) 3.51 3.94 12.2% Beat
Q3 FY2025 Revenue 1,521 1,524 0.2% Beat
Q3 FY2025 EPS (normalized) 2.43 2.76 13.7% Beat
Q2 FY2025 Revenue 1,674 1,686 0.7% Beat
Q2 FY2025 EPS (normalized) 3.31 3.53 6.8% Beat
Q1 FY2025 Revenue 1,535 1,534 -0.0% Miss
Q1 FY2025 EPS (normalized) 2.72 2.98 9.7% Beat
Q4 FY2024 Revenue 1,690 1,715 1.5% Beat
Q4 FY2024 EPS (normalized) 3.26 5.45 67.2% Beat
Q3 FY2024 Revenue 1,475 1,484 0.6% Beat
Q3 FY2024 EPS (normalized) 2.37 2.50 5.6% Beat
Q2 FY2024 Revenue 1,585 1,595 0.7% Beat
Q2 FY2024 EPS (normalized) 3.03 3.22 6.4% Beat

Where the street disagrees

Near-term views are tight by comparison, with FY2026 normalized EPS carrying a standard deviation of only about 0.34.

Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Dispersion is high-low divided by absolute mean; analyst count shown per item.

Period Metric Mean Low High Spread / mean Analysts
Q3 FY2024 Net income (GAAP) 211.3 154.1 378.6 106.3% 5
Q3 FY2024 EPS (GAAP) 2.72 1.99 4.86 105.4% 5
2029 EPS (normalized) 21.14 16.71 25.57 41.9% 2
2029 EPS (GAAP) 19.96 15.97 23.94 40.0% 2
2028 EPS (GAAP) 16.32 14.77 20.27 33.7% 6